CFR Brief

Friday, December 28, 2007

CFR Daily Brief

Top of the Agenda: What Now in Pakistan?

Less than a day after gun and bomb attacks killed Pakistan’s iconic opposition leader, Benazir Bhutto, her death has already spurred more violence in her fragile homeland. The New York Times reports violence erupted in cities across Pakistan today, as hundreds of thousands gathered in Bhutto’s ancestral village for her funeral procession. The Times of India reports that an al-Qaeda leader claimed credit for Bhutto’s killing, calling her “the most precious American asset.” As a new Daily Analysis notes, Bhutto’s death raises major questions for the future of a turbulent and politically torn country with critical elections scheduled for January 8.

Amid rampant speculation about the elections, which were expected to bring Bhutto back to power for a third term as prime minister, Pakistan’s current Prime Minister Mohammadian Soomro today announced elections would be held as scheduled (NDTV) and urged Pakistanis to remain calm. Western leaders have called for elections to proceed despite widespread concerns over whether the vote will be seen as legitimate (AP).

The news also comes as a major blow to the United States, which had supported Bhutto as a pro-democracy candidate in a country struggling to contain its militant forces. In a conference call yesterday, CFR’s Pakistan expert Daniel Markey called it “a bad day for Pakistan, a bad day, I think, for the United States,” and added that “we’re going to be paying a price for this for a while.”

Bruce Riedel, a former Central Intelligence Agency official who focused on South Asia policy, says the objective of Bhutto’s assassins was “to destabilize the Pakistani state, to break up the secular political parties,” with the ultimate goal being the return of Islamist groups to power. A news analysis from the Wall Street Journal drives home the possible ripple effects and says extremist groups will be “emboldened by the demise of a secular, modern Muslim politician.” An audio report on NPR’s “All Things Considered” argues that U.S. policy toward Pakistan will need to shift in Bhutto’s absence and notes that a shift toward Islamist influence could be dangerous, given the country’s nuclear arsenal.

MIDDLE EAST: Lebanon’s Constitution

Parliamentarians from Lebanon’s “March 14” coalition called for emergency meetings (Daily Star) of parliament to amend and ratify a new constitution that would allow Gen. Michel Suleiman to come to power as president after months of deadlock.

In a recent interview, CFR’s Mohamad Bazzi describes Lebanon’s political landscape.

Qatar-Russia: An article in the most recent issue of the Middle East Review of International Affairs, an Israel-based journal, examines political and economic cooperation between Russia and Qatar, two of the world’s leading natural gas producers.

Iraq: At least ten people were killed (BBC) and sixty more injured today in Baghdad in bomb attacks on a crowded marketplace. In a separate incident, U.S. soldiers reportedly killed eleven members (NYT) of the Mahdi Army, a militant group loyal to Muqtada al-Sadr.

ASIA: Japan-China Summit

Leaders from China and Japan met today in Beijing (Xinhua). Japan’s Prime Minister Yasuo Fukuda pressed China to take a more active stance limiting carbon emissions and said Japan was willing to counter Taiwanese claims of independence. The Associated Press says the conference highlighted a recent thaw in Chinese-Japanese relations.

Automobiles: A chart on Economist.com surveys trends in new car registrations, noting that East Asia and Australia, excluding Japan, have far and away outpaced the rest of the world in terms of growth of automobile ownership.

Olympics: China is courting international companies for help designing surveillance systems to monitor visitors at next summer’s games. But some critics of China’s human rights record say the move may violate a sanctions law passed following the Tiananmen Square killings.

SOUTH & CENTRAL ASIA: Investor Flight

The Financial Times reports that investors in South Asia have been spooked by the assassination of Benazir Bhutto, sending shares reeling throughout the region. Oil and gold, considered financial safe-havens against inflation and political uncertainty, spiked (AP).

Afghanistan: Bhutto’s death may also have repercussions on international efforts in Afghanistan, reports Canada’s National Post. One opposition leader in Australia said the news could have strategic effects (AAP) on Australian troops stationed in Afghanistan.

Tajikstan: RFE/RL reports that Tajik officials are taking reactionary steps to an emerging economic crisis by seeking to crack down on witchcraft.

AFRICA: Kenya Elections

Kenya’s Vice President and several influential ministers lost their seats in yesterday’s national elections, which brought millions to the polls. The Nairobi paper East African Standard outlines the electoral results.

Somalia: The Power and Interest News Report has a paper looking at Somalia’s new strategic realities after years of sustained violence. The report says the country has entered a “chronic condition of statelessness characterized by devolution of the political community to clan-based solidarities.

Nigeria: The Abuja publication Leadership reports that Nigeria’s President Umaru Yar’Adua may have removed Malam Ribadu, the leader country’s Economic and Financial Crimes Commission. The article says Ribadu’s departure would come as the culmination of a longstanding power-struggle between him and Nigeria’s attorney general.

AMERICAS: Colombian Hostages

The BBC reports that a Colombian left-wing guerilla group might release three hostages later this week. Venezuela’s President Hugo Chavez claims he has brokered a deal with the groups and says helicopters will soon be departing from Venezuela to pick up the hostages.

Canada: A report sponsored by two Canadian think tanks examines the difficulties of managing democracy (PDF) in increasingly multicultural countries and offers solutions for effective governance.

United States: In a video report posted by Brookings, several experts examine U.S. military readiness.

CAMPAIGN 2008: Bhutto’s Impact

The New York Times looks at Sen. Hillary Clinton's relationship with Benazir Bhutto.

Sen. Joe Biden (D-DE), chairman of the Senate Foreign Relations Committee, said in a press conference yesterday that he had urged Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice to offer the services of U.S. intelligence and security agencies for the investigation into Bhutto's death.

Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM) will deliver a major speech today in which he will criticize U.S. policy toward Pakistan as having been "too much on personalities like President Musharraf and not enough on democratic principles and human rights." In the speech, he will pledge that if he is elected, "not a penny more in aid will be provided to Pakistan to fight terrorism until Musharraf leaves office."

EUROPE: Georgian Leader’s Decline

RFE/RL examines the rapid fall from grace of Georgia’s leader Mikheil Saakashvili, saying his Rose Revolution has become the “stuff of legend” but that a chronic failure to communicate has undermined his ability to govern.

Denmark: A blogger on Economist.com takes a look at Denmark’s welfare-focused economy and questions its sustainability in an economically liberalized European Union.

Russia: World Politics Review surveys the response of Russian media to TIME magazine naming President Vladimir Putin its “Person of the Year.”